cricket bettingCricket betting tips： Big Bash outright preview and best bets
2pts Melbourne Stars to win the Big Bash 13/2 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Despite the new, high-profile player draft which took place earlier in the year, the latest edition of the Big Bash League has already been hit hard by international call-ups, the SA20 and the ILT20 – though things should still be much better than the last two renewals which were badly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Big Bash has patently lost a little bit of its stature in the last few years, the gap between this competition and the IPL widening and new rival leagues improving in quality, and ultimately, paying more to attract bigger names to their competitions.
What Australia does offer is generally good weather, at this time of year anyway, the lack of a particularly strong toss bias that has to be good for everyone, good pitches and decent-sized grounds that usually facilitate a fair contest between bat and ball. The timing of the matches, more often starting early to mid-morning UK time, is ideal for viewers and punters over here, too.
Three-time Big Bash champions and last year’s finalists, Sydney Sixers, once again head the betting and for good reason.
The Sixers are the epitome of consistency, making a habit of winning close matches and clutch moments, in part due to their vastly experienced squad that has barely changed in personnel and has clearly defined, set roles for each member.
In James Vince they have international star quality, but he is one of many who seems unlikely to play the whole season, owing to other commitments, and my slight concern with the Sixers is an ageing squad that is still reliant on the likes of Dan Christian and Steve O’Keefe.
Christian has been a wonderful T20 cricketer, but I don’t think he’s the player he was a couple of years ago, while O’Keefe’s hamstrings are notoriously fragile and are liable to go at any time.
The batting remains strong, but the Sixers look opposable on price (7/2), given they aren’t certain to shorten that much if finishing in the top five in the league table, and thus qualifying for the latter stages.
Hobart Hurricanes are next in with Sky Bet at 4/1, and they have recruited some exciting and experienced talent from Pakistan to bolster a talented squad.
My issue with the Hurricanes, just as it was last year, is the imbalance in a batting line-up that features four destructive batsmen who are all at their best opening the batting.
Fans of the T20 Blast will know what Ben McDermott is capable of, and he was last year’s leading runscorer in this competition. But D’Arcy Short, Matthew Wade and England’s Zak Crawley all like to bat at the top of the order, and I’m just not convinced the Hurricanes will be able to get the best out of everyone.
Tim David does provide unmatched finishing power, and there is plenty of pace in a bowling attack led by the excellent Nathan Ellis, but they, too, look plenty short enough in the betting.
Like the Sixers, Perth Scorchers have an illustrious history in the competition having won four Big Bash titles already, including last year.
Losing Phil Salt, Laurie Evans and Mitchell Marsh for the duration of this edition has been a big blow to their preparations, though Adam Lyth is an excellent signing who promises to be well-suited by the nature of the pitches in Australia.
Lyth was outstanding for Northern Superchargers in the second edition of The Hundred last summer, but he, Faf du Plessis and Tymal Mills will only be available for the first half of the tournament, and as strong as the bowling looks on paper, runs could be a problem further down the line.
Despite bringing in plenty of new faces, Brisbane Heat still can’t win me over and overseas signings Sam Billings and Colin Munro will leave for other leagues in early January.
Keep an eye on Jack Wildermuth who is a terrific all-rounder cricketer, while opening batsman Max Bryant is a big talent who is capable of better than he produced last season. Bryant’s recent domestic form has been very good, so he might be able to prove best of a bad bunch on a match-by-match basis.
Though having a reputation for flattering to deceive, with a host of marquee signings failing to deliver over the years, MELBOURNE STARS might just have turned a corner and they make most appeal in the outright market, with 13/2 worth a bet.
Glenn Maxwell missing a good chunk of the early part of the season through injury is a massive blow considering he was Stars’ leading runscorer last term, but there is still real quality in a squad that might not be too badly affected by player ins and outs.
Trent Boult might be the only one, but his involvement will be priceless when he is around and the prospect of him, Nathan Coulter-Nile and Luke Wood bowling together is an exciting one. Add wrist spinner Adam Zampa to the mix and this is a mighty fine attack.
The batting, minus Maxwell, is the obvious concern. Marcus Stoinis has become a finisher for the national team so will need to get used to opening the batting again, while Joe Clarke arrives in Australia on the back of a disappointing summer in the England.
But Stoinis has real pedigree at the highest level and has been a brilliant opener in this competition for a long time now. Clarke was terrific throughout last season, and the likes of Hilton Cartwright and Joe Burns add power and a touch class respectively.
If Stoinis and Clarke can click the Stars are genuine title contenders, and it’s worth remembering that they were the worst affected by Covid-19 last season – at one stage playing with a team almost exclusively made up of club recruits because of positive tests.
The Stars had made a blistering start to that campaign until Covid struck, and I would take their eventual finishing position (sixth) with a large pinch of salt.
Part of the reason why the Scorchers have been so successful over the years has been because they have historically boasted the best attack in the competition, and I reckon the Stars can lay claim to having the strongest bowling line-up on this occasion.
In a tournament with so many question marks surrounding so many of the teams, the Stars, for once, have a solid look to them – even without Maxwell – and rate a spot of value at 13/2.
CLICK HERE to back Melbourne Stars to win the Big Bash with Sky BetSydney Thunder continue to knock hard on the door, but I do wonder if they missed their chance in the 2020/2021 edition when coming up short in the knockouts, having looked so good in the regular season.
Their squad remains strong, but they promise to be hurt when their overseas stars head for brighter lights elsewhere, and that is also applicable to Adelaide Strikers who won’t have the services of Rashid Khan for the full season.
Solid but unspectacular, the Strikers might well make the latter stages again but expect them to come up short – as they did against the Sixers last year – when things hot up.
For those wanting a name to follow, Adam Hose looked a fine player in the making when impressing for Northern Superchargers in The Hundred last summer and I’ll be keen to see where he slots in this Strikers batting line-up, and how odds compilers price him up.
The final franchise to mention is Melbourne Renegades, the outsiders of the field but perhaps not the forlorn hopes the betting would suggest.
The bowling does have holes in it, but Kane Richardson will continue to lead the attack with skill and guile, while Mujeeb ur Rahman will be a real a handful until his departure.
The strength is in the batting, though, with old hands Aaron Finch, Shaun Marsh, and Martin Guptill still more than capable of scoring big runs at this level. There is also genuine talent from some of the younger batsmen in the squad, namely Mackenzie Harvey and Jake Fraser-McGurk.
With so much experience and pedigree in their ranks, the Renegades could easily get on a roll, for all there probably isn’t the same level of quality on their roster as when they went all the way in 2018/2019.
Preview posted at 1915 GMT on 11/12/2022
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cricket bettingCricket betting tips： Pakistan v England third Test preview and best bets
2pts Mohammad Wasim top Pakistan first innings bowler at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Mohammad Wasim to be Man of the Match at 33/1 (Unibet)
2pts Imam-Ul-Haq to make a first innings fifty at 7/4 (General)
1pt Imam-Ul-Haq to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Boylesports)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Much has been made of ‘Bazball’ and the impact England’s new philosophy has had in transforming the fortunes of the Test team, culminating in a highly significant series win in Pakistan just a matter of days ago, but it would be naive to think that is the only reason for England’s success on the subcontinent.
It is true the likes of Harry Brook, Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley have given their bowling attack big runs and lots of time to work with, but we shouldn’t underestimate the role England’s seamers played in victories in the first two Tests, and that’s where the visitors have really trumped their hosts.
When Australia won on these shores earlier in the year, it was Pat Cummins who was the difference between the two bowling attacks – not Nathan Lyon’s off spin as many might have expected – and it has been England’s pacers who have delivered the knockout blow in both matches on this tour.
Despite Rawalpindi offering nothing for the seamers, and then Multan proving to be slow and low, James Anderson and Ollie Robinson have managed eight wickets each at an average of 18.50 and 18.37 respectively. Mark Wood took six wickets in the second Test, having sat out the series opener.
Jack Leach has picked up eight wickets so far with his left-arm finger spin, but he has delivered almost double the number of overs that Anderson and Robinson have.
Leach’s series average of 57.12 is a poor return, in truth, and speaks to a wider issue going forward in regard to England’s frontline spinner who has been far more expensive than the seamers in conditions that have suited him much better.
What it also tells us is that the fast bowlers, though rarely able to find conventional swing and seam, have remained a more constant threat through their unwavering accuracy, clever use of the bouncer that can be much harder to duck on these slow, low pitches, and the most important factor of all – reverse swing.
The tourists found it just in time in Rawalpindi as Anderson and Robinson led England’s victory march, and again in Multan as Wood’s extra pace and slingy action proved perfect for the full, attacking length needed to utilise reverse swing best.
This is where England have really held the edge over Pakistan. Stokes has backed his seamers in selection, and then in the big moments. And they have been good enough to deliver.
Pakistan, after the mauling in Rawalpindi, have gone the other way. Wrist spinner Abrar Ahmed was brought in for the second Test and made an immediate impact by taking 11 wickets in the match, though he was helped by a spinning pitch and the fact he was required to get through a huge amount of overs.
But having only picked one frontline seamer, alongside all-rounder Faheem Ashraf, Pakistan had no real option in terms of reverse swing, a weapon that has always been so crucial in this part of the world and one that England have utilised so well.
Babar Azam’s team have been hurt by injuries, but I fully expect MOHAMMAD WASIM to make his Test debut this week, having been with the squad for the first two Tests following a breakthrough tournament at the recent T20 World Cup.
Wasim finished the World Cup with eight scalps, impressing with his high pace and deadly yorker, and his tournament strike-rate of 12.7 was the best of Pakistan’s exceptional attack. That attack featured the likes of Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf – both missing from this match because of injury.
Perhaps the most impressive weapon in Wasim’s armoury was his ability to reverse swing the white Kookaburra ball after only 15 overs or so, something we seldom saw from any other bowler in Australia.
Wasim is an an absolute must for Pakistan this week when you consider how reverse swing has already shaped this series.
I have the utmost respect for Abrar in the top Pakistan bowler market, but we’re betting on the first innings here when spin, in theory, should make less of an impact. He looks short enough, with 5/2 the best on offer, and I much prefer Wasim at 5/1.
CLICK HERE to back Wasim top Pakistan bowler with Sky BetGiven how close Pakistan were to winning either of the first two Tests – and they traded at odds-on in both run chases – I wouldn’t rule out a consolation for the hosts in Karachi should they get selection right, meaning a small bet on Wasim in the Man of the Match market at 33/1 (Unibet) also appeals.
CLICK HERE to back Wasim Man of the Match with Sky BetIt will be interesting to see whether England throw all of Anderson, Robinson and Wood out of the door again after an arduous few weeks, and don’t be at all surprised if the latter in particular is looked after with kid gloves with an Ashes series in the summer now firmly on the horizon.
I made the case for backing Jamie Overton in the top England bowler market last week, owing to his extra pace, and he could well earn a recall this week. If not, Robinson would edge out Anderson as my pick in this market.
The second Test was a quiet one for Zak Crawley after he landed the money for these pages in Rawalpindi, but it’s more conditions than one lean match that is putting me off rowing in again on Saturday.
The whole basis for my argument around Crawley on this tour was around the idea that he would be able to make hay on some flat pitches. That was certainly the case in the first Test, but following some harsh criticism of the pitch in Rawalpindi, Multan wasn’t as easy to bat on and Crawley not as effective.
I’m not entirely sure what we’ll get this week, with spin and reverse swing potentially on the cards, and it’s enough to be put off the Kent man who is conditions dependent in my opinion.
The fact Crawley was 8/1 to make a century in the first Test, and again last week, but is only 5/1 now, seals the deal.
Instead, I’m much happier keeping with faith with IMAM-UL-HAQ who has posted scores 128, 48, 0 and 60 in the series so far.
CLICK HERE to back Imam to make a fifty with Sky BetImam currently averages 66.55 in Tests at home, and he looks to have a sound game for these conditions. Furthermore, as a left-hander, he has found things relatively comfortable against England’s chief spin threat, Leach.
CLICK HERE to back Imam to make a century with Sky BetI’ve no interest in taking on Babar in the top Pakistan batsman market, but 7/4 for Imam to make a first-innings fifty is fair enough, with 6/1 about him reaching three figures worth a smaller investment.
Preview posted at 1400 GMT on 15/12/2022
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