what is odd and even in cricket bettingUnderstanding the Over-round (Betting Odds Explained in Full)
Not sure what an over-round is? In short; it’s the combined total of priced probability across all outcomes on a single event.
To make money in betting you’ll need to find value of one kind or another. In order to do this, you need to understand the game.
The over-round is a big influence in any one market…
This post has absolutely everything you need to know, including;
How betting odds work
Understanding the over-round
Over-round and implied chance calculations
The difference between bookmakers odds and betting exchanges
Why all of this matters to traders, or anyone looking to win
Betting odds are relatively simple to understand. In most cases, the explanation is over complicated.
Let’s try and keep it simple…
an over-round is the combined total of priced probability across all outcomes on a single event
It’s basically the rule that makes all the prices add up and make forming a betting market possible.
If you forget the betting for a moment and think about any competitive event, be it horse racing, football or tennis. All possible outcomes combined, total 100%. Betting odds work on this principle, from then on a betting firm factors in their profit margin. More on that in a moment.
The simplest explanation would go something like this:
Imagine a coin toss.
50% chance the coin lands on heads.
50% chance the coin lands on tails.
Overall chance totals 100%, it has to.
The odds, in either case, would be calculated based on the chance of the outcome. Or at least the perceived chance (because not every event is as straightforward as a two-sided coin).
This also means betting?odds have to be balanced within any one market.
If one selection should shorten in price, another has to lengthen and vice-versa. The exception being when a bookmaker’s odds are at a particularly bad over-round margin, essentially there is more ‘slack’ in the pricing. In layman’s terms, the bookies set the odds so bad they can afford to let some prices drift without having to shorten others.
To understand how the odds are created, it’s a good idea to look at the various calculations…
Before we look at the over-round calculation (entire betting markets odds) it’s best to understand the prices individually. It’s quite simple.
Implied chance = 100 / decimal odds
To make the calculation clear, here’s an example:
A betting price of ‘evens’ (2.0) is known as this because the selection has an even chance of winning, 50/50. Like a coin toss.
If we enter those odds into our over-round calculation it works out like this; 100 / 2.0 = 50.
Meaning the outcomes implied chance of happening is 50%.
This is also why shorter odds are so important in horse racing markets.
Just think, if a horse’s price indicates it has a 50% chance of winning, it holds a pretty big influence over the rest of the market.
Makes sense, right?
But what about the total over-round calculation? it’s just the sum of the implied chance within any given market. See below.
Here’s an example of what the odds look like on a betting exchange like Betfair or Betdaq. Notice the total over-round is as 103.03% in this instance.
The more competitive (and active) a market is, the closer the over-round will be to 100%. This won’t happen for long though with various automated algorithms, in particular Betfairs cross-matching algorithm. I’ll explain that another time though, it’s a post in itself.
When you understand the over-round, it becomes clear quite how bad the offering is with a bookmaker.
In comparison to a betting exchange, bookmakers odds are poor.
Here’s why…
I’ve added an additional column to show a bookmakers odds in fractional format for the same betting market as above. Next to them is the decimal conversion.
No wonder you’ve never seen a poor bookie!
In comparison, there was a 31.1% difference over the entire market with a bookmaker. In favour of the bookie, of course. That’s why you can rarely ever win with a bookmaker, and as well all know – if you do, they’ll limit you to ￡1 stakes or close your account in no time at all.
That’s the difference between a bookmaker and betting exchanges.
In most cases a bookmaker’s first response is “but you can’t get your bets on in the morning on Betfair”. I find this statement both hilarious and hypocritical. When pressed you’ll find they often pipe-down.
They’d like to lead everyone to believe they will lay a bet in the morning, the reality is; they’ll let you have a small amount at the price and the rest at SP (starting price). And once you’ve won a few times they’ll tell you to sod off (see ￡1 bet comment above).
Bookmakers SP is of course useless in most cases, it contains that over-round difference to the true market value expressed by the exchange. And the true-odds (exchange odds) are dictated by thousands of people around the world, some running mathematical algorithms, trading and betting. Many of which are far more intelligent than the bookies. Best-case you’ll get a lower over-round percentage than the example above from a bookie.
Plus, betting exchanges aren’t so bad around 10.30 am these days. Getting a bet matched isn’t that hard, unless it’s well into the ￡100’s at a good price. In which case the bookies would have laughed you out-of-town long ago.
So, how does understanding the?over-round affect traders?
Bearing the over-round in mind can be helpful to traders. It’s not exactly an edge. Although it can indicate how much ‘slack’ there is in the current market pricing.
To make that a little clearer; if there is what you think is a significant gamble taking place and the over-round percentage is 100.6% then the overall book is tight. It’s quite likely large sums dropping into the market will trigger Betfair’s cross-matching algorithm, spreading the value across other prices in the alternate direction, inversely proportionate to price.
That’s a bit of a mouthful?I know.
Quite a few readers may be a little lost. In fact, I’ll have to make the next article I write about cross-matching to make things a little clearer. If you’re interested, the?weight of money is also likely to be something you want to read about.
The simplest way to put it is, it’s a little like dominoes for traders…
Not the Pizza place, the type you may have stood in a long line as a kid before starting an avalanche.
When the cross-matching kicks in and starts to do its thing, it spreads the point of pressure across the entire betting market. Pushing the competing prices in the alternate direction.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the price action has to continue one way though, unfortunately. What it does do, is provide a point in the market where the current pricing is unlikely to remain static. Because if the impending pressure is resisted, there’s likely to be a bit of a whip-saw in the alternate direction. How much depends on the market volatility.
Why Do Betting Odds Change?
There are many factors that contribute to a change in odds. With a bookmaker it’s a little different to an exchange, although the principles are the same. There’s far more margin in the bookmakers betting odds, so it’s fair to say; the exchange always leads. Or at least it should, in some instances you’ll find it doesn’t though leading to a potential arbitrage opportunity.?This is when the bookies are at their most vulnerable and easily beaten.
But obviously, that leads to the usual account closures.
You’ll see bookmakers odds just following the exchange these days, the closest representation to true value. Support and resistance is probably my most reliable indicator and commonly used as video pack users will know.
In all honesty, I think the best course of action when it comes to knowing if betting odds will change is not in predicting the future. But more a case of assessing what’s under or overvalued already, at that point in time and then playing the percentage call.
Of course that’s not what the industry would have everyone believe…
In Summary
Overall, understanding the over-round and how betting odds work is useful to us, but not the holy grail when it comes to making money on Betfair.?Bookmakers?like to make out they’re doing something special and rather complicated. But in the modern world, they all just follow Betfair and slap on a bigger margin. At SP the exchange markets pricing is surprisingly efficient.
Between understanding the over-round, weight of money and cross-matching it’s probably not too hard to see there are some interesting snippets that lead towards making a profit. Like any indicator though, it’d be foolish to rely solely on one. Increasing your knowledge on a situation is always a good thing though…
I may have made a mistake in assuming this was one of the first things any aspiring trader would lookup. As with anything in life, finding a profitable angle comes from first understanding the market rules and limitations and working with what you have!
If you found this post of use, please let me know below!
Related: Weight of Money Explained?|?What is Cross Matching?
Still not sure? Watch this:
what is odd and even in cricket bettingWhat does odd and even mean in bets： description and tips on the game
Understanding these outcomes is easy to understand.?Odd or Even Betting applies to any statistic regardless of the sport.?This indicator can mean total goals, games played, goals scored, etc.
Bookmakers offer to bet on “even” or “odd” before the start of the match or in real time.?Pre-match quotes are usually equal for each of the results.?Statistics show that the odds for such outcomes are close to 2.00.?Bookmakers can offer to bet on an even or odd outcome with quotes 1.85, 1.90, etc.?Hence, from the bookmaker’s point of view, the odds are even, but professional cuppers follow different tactics based on the particular sport in order to assess which outcome is more likely to pass.
The odd bet is considered valid if the match ends with three goals scored, 9 goals, 157 points scored, etc.?Only the main time is taken into account – the minutes and even seconds added by the referee are also taken into account, but extra times, penalty shootouts or shootouts are not counted.
This article was published thanks to?the”Excelbetting.com”?Betting Software Analysis Study sports betting, take tests, earn experience and beat the leaderboard. Outrun the editor-in-chief!
Cappers consider football to be the best betting option for odd or even outcomes, since this sport is not particularly effective and it is easier to predict the total number of goals.?Moreover, bettors get access to the average performance statistics, depending on the particular championship.?For example, in the Premier League, an average of 2.5-2.8 goals are scored per match.?This is high performance.?But in Serie A, the average goal scored per game fluctuates in the range of 0.95-1.6 goals per game.
Professional players choose two outcomes in order to cover an unsuccessful bet in case of a loss.?For example, the “even” total is combined with the total of goals over 2.5.?The odds for TB 2.5 must be greater than 2. For example, a player is going to bet $ 40 on a match between Barcelona and Alaves.?The game promises to have a lot of goals scored, so the capper bets $ 20 on the even total with odds of 1.90, and the remaining $ 20 on the total goals over 2.5.?If three or more goals are scored, but the final score is odd, the capper will still be in positive territory.
In addition to the total total of goals, you can choose an individual total or the number of goals scored in the first and second half.
In football betting, it is effective to combine the chosen strategy with the xG index, which determines the expected number of goals.?There are discrepancies when comparing the final results and the xG scores, but the final results, including the even or odd total, often coincide.
In tennis, strategy is also popular, with players having several possible outcomes to choose from.?For example, you can choose an even or odd total of games at the end of a match, at the end of a specific set, and an individual total of games for one player is also offered.
Predicting the result in tennis is even easier than in football.?When a tennis player wins six games, he wins the set (except in situations where the lead is only one point).?The capper calculates all possible outcomes of the game or the fight as a whole.?It is recommended to bet on an odd total of games in one set if there are equal opponents, and with a high degree of probability the end of the game will go into a tie-break, ending with a score of 7: 6 in favor of one of the tennis players.?If one of the players significantly surpasses the opponent, it is worth betting on an even individual total – the victory will be won in two or three sets (depending on the tournament), and the total of games will be 12 or 18.
In basketball, predicting the total number of points scored is the most difficult thing, so bookmakers offer equal odds for even and odd outcomes, even if the opponents are equal in strength.?Experts recommend using the catch-up strategy in order to still win in the end.?You will need to place bets on each separate quarter.
Based on the statistics, you can see that only one match out of 10 will end with the same outcome for all quarters (all even or all odd).?In other cases, there are differences.?The capper must decide on one outcome without changing the bet throughout the whole match.?The algorithm is quite simple:
You bet on the odd value of the points in the first quarter, determine the size of the bet with a large margin – for example, 5% of the bankroll.?Let’s say you bet $ 10 at odds of 1.90.?The bet failed.
In the second quarter, you will need to place a large bet (2 – 2.2 times more) on the same outcome.?If it doesn’t pass, bet again on “odd” on the third quarter with an increased size, and so on.
But if even in the first quarter your bet has passed, the professional capper stops there, choosing another game and repeating the algorithm.?Excitement hurts bettors a lot.
In hockey, there is a slightly different logic for betting on “even” or “odd”.?Cappers prefer to play long distances as there is a 50% chance of passing a bet in this sport.?Experts recommend betting on an even number of goals scored at the end of the game in the following cases:
The quotes for the victory of each of the opponents are in the range from 2.25 to 2.75.
In the confrontations of the chosen pair, a draw is often fixed.?In addition, analysts recommend choosing a line of 9-10 events, where it will be enough for the capper to guess 5-6 events in order not to go negative.
Among the main recommendations applicable to the strategy of betting on even and odd outcomes are the following:
Don’t bet high to avoid losing your bankroll.?Divide the total by 10-15 bets, depending on the chosen tactics.
Watch for a series of specific commands.?For example, if a club played a streak of five matches with an even goal score, bet on “odd”.
To make dogon, use the services of physical bookmaker offices, otherwise there is a risk of colliding with the limit set by the online bookmaker.
Don’t be guided by emotion or intuition.?Cold calculation is important in the betting game – follow the chosen method under all circumstances.
Key benefits of the strategy include:
Odd and even bets are suitable for both beginners and professional players.
You can place a bet on any event, regardless of the sport.
There is no need for in-depth meeting analytics.?It is enough to view the latest results of the opponents, calculate the total number of goals scored and conceded, washers, points, etc.
The main disadvantages of the strategy are:
Luck is given too much importance in predicting such outcomes.
The psychology of the bettor can subconsciously keep the capper from the next bet if he loses.
The strategy of betting on even or odd results is interesting, and in many confrontations the odds for each of the two outcomes are unequal, which contradicts the bookmaker’s prediction.?Therefore, with the right planning and analytics, a capper can make a strategy a permanent income.
Check out some of our Best Betting Spreadsheet ?- Analysis football. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.
what is odd and even in cricket bettingWhat does the ‘Evens’ Betting Term Mean in Odds？
When looking at bookmakers odds, you will sometimes see the odds marked up as ‘Evens’ or ‘Evs’ for short (also known as Even Money). But what does this mean in betting terms and should you place a bet at Evens?
The term relates to the odds given and it can be found across all sports including football, horse racing and golf. When a bookies prices something up at Evens, it basically means a double your money bet, as the bookies think it has a 50/50 chance of happening.
Anything that is priced at lower than Evens is known as ‘odds on’, anything over Evens is ‘odds against’.
Depending on which betting site you use and how you have your odds set up, you might see Evens written as 1/1 or 2.0 in decimal odds. In American moneyline odds, Evens is the same as -100.
How an Evens bet works
Betting on odds of ‘Evens’
Best Evens bet for today
Whould you place Evens bets?
How much do you win on Evens bets?
Betting on something at odds of Evens means you double your money if the bet wins.
For example:
You bet ￡20 on Liverpool to beat Manchester United at odds of Evens.
If Liverpool win, you double your money – the return will be ￡40 (￡20 profit and your ￡20 stake returned).
If Manchester United win or the match is a draw, your bet loses.
When something is priced up at Evens, the bookies are suggesting that there is a 50/50 chance of the result in question happening. This is seen by many people as the ideal bet that balances risk and reward, and it is a popular choice for betting challenges on social media.
You would only have to win 50% of your Evens bets to keep yourself level or in profit if you chose to bet on everything at Evens.
If you choose to bet on Evens odds in betting, you can look to get an advantage over the bookies by trying to find events that you think are priced incorrectly. Sometimes bettors can get an edge over bookmakers by finding odds which the bettor feels should be shorter.
For example, if Manchester City are playing a match against Tottrnham this weekend but there are a lot of injuries in the Tottenham squad, the bookmakers might not have taken that into consideration or not yet seen the team news. This could mean that Manchester City’s odds are Evens when really they should be shorter – 4/6 for example. If this is the case then this would be a good time to bet on Manchester City at odds of Evens.
This is how Evens is written at – 1/1.
Although our bet of the day tips are not always exactly Evens, we do try to find betting tips that are Evens or bigger because this provides the punter will good value for a bet.
A ￡10 bet on an Evens bet of the day would return ￡20, or a ￡10 bet on a 6/4 bet of the day would return ￡25.
Each day you should check out our bet of the day page and see what bet is advised if you want to bet on something at odds of Evens on the football.
An evens bet is placed at decimal odds of 2.0. This is a double your money bet and if that is how you want to place today’s bets, they are a good choice. However, we would always advise betting on something you think is going to win, not just because the odds are Evens. Afterall, having a winning bet at odds of 5/6 or 4/6 is better than having a losing bet at Evens.
In football, Evens is a very common odds to see and the challenge is to decide whether you think this is a good value bet or not.
When you see the higher placed team away from home priced at Evens, you might instantly think that is a good bet, but after some consideration and taking everything into account you could change your mind.
It is not uncommon to see the ’s top clubs priced at Evens or bigger for away matches. For example, Chelsea might be priced at Evens away to Everton, but they have a poor record at Goodison Park and often struggle to win at that away group, so this is a time when you maybe shouldn’t place at Evens bet.
You would double your stake if the bet wins.
A ￡20 bet at Evens returns ￡40 (￡20 profit and your ￡20 stake back).
A ￡50 bet at Evens returns ￡100 (￡50 profit and your ￡50 stake back).
A ￡100 bet at Evens returns ￡200 (￡100 profit and your ￡100 stake back).
Of course, if your bet loses then you don’t win anything.
If you want to have a go at Evens betting on today’s sport, a free bet is a good thing to use because it reduces your risk of losing.
Opening a new account will get your four free ￡5 bets once you bet ￡5 and this is perfect for an Evens bet today.
Sign-up for a account and place a ￡5 bet at odds of Evens.
Win or lose you get four free ￡5 bets and if your Evens bet wins, you win an additional ￡5 profit.
what is odd and even in cricket bettingWhat does the ‘Evens’ Betting Term Mean in Odds？
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