Here is how India and Pakistan may meet in the semi-finals. Scenarios that might lead to an India-Pakistan World Cup semi-final in 2023
The ICC World Cup 2023 is getting closer to a potential India-Pakistan match as the competition enters a critical stage. India and South Africa have already qualified for the semi-finals, holding the top two slots in the points standings. Australia, on the other hand, is yet to secure a semi-final spot but has two chances with future matches against Afghanistan and Bangladesh. A win in either match guarantees Australia a place in the top three during the league stage.
Three countries are competing for the fourth and last semi-final spot: New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, while technically still in the running, have very unlikely odds. The fourth-placed team will meet India in the semi-finals, heightening the specter of an India-Pakistan clash in this high-stakes game.
In one possible scenario, if New Zealand loses to Sri Lanka and Pakistan defeats England, Pakistan would exceed New Zealand’s eight-point lead. To strengthen their position, Pakistan would also need Australia and South Africa to defeat Afghanistan, stopping them from achieving 10 points. This scenario heightens the battle for the coveted fourth slot and heightens the expectation of an India-Pakistan match.
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How India and Pakistan may meet in the semi-finals
Scenario 2
If New Zealand wins against Sri Lanka and Pakistan wins against England, while both Afghanistan matches are lost, the race for the fourth semi-final position will be decided by the net run rate between Pakistan and New Zealand. Pakistan must calculate the margin of victory versus England in order to surpass New Zealand’s net run rate. However, if Afghanistan wins at least one of their final two matches, they will have accumulated ten points. Despite this, their negative net run rate (-0.330) now places them third in the fight for fourth place.
Scenario 3
If rain disrupts New Zealand’s last match against Sri Lanka and Pakistan defeats England, both sides will have 10 points. Furthermore, if Afghanistan wins only one game, they will get ten points. In this case, the net run rate (NRR) will be used to determine the semi-final qualifiers. However, if both Pakistan and New Zealand’s final matches are impacted by rain, New Zealand will proceed to the semi-finals owing to their better NRR.
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